DTS Forecast
Projecting Treasury General Account liquidity from Daily Treasury Statement cash flows, with SOFR as the funding-pressure read.
Live data · as of 2026-09-17 · refreshes hourlyProjection: 6-layer modelSource: modelOrigin: 2026-09-18Accuracy: unvalidatedAnchor: 2026-09-17
TGA balance$973B+$155B vs one week ago
TGA at 12 weeks (projected)$942B−$31B vs today
SOFR3.85%+20bp vs 20-day average
Liquidity read
Adding — TGA projected to run down, pushing reserves into the system
Treasury General Account
Closing balance from the Daily Treasury Statement, with a 60-business-day projection from the 6-layer Treasury cash-flow model (see Method).
ActualProjected (6-layer model)
View as table
| Date | Actual | Projected (6-layer model) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | $965B | — |
| 2025-10-28 | $985B | — |
| 2025-10-29 | $984B | — |
| 2025-10-30 | $1,001B | — |
| 2025-10-31 | $926B | — |
| 2025-11-03 | $925B | — |
| 2025-11-04 | $940B | — |
| 2025-11-05 | $943B | — |
| 2025-11-06 | $954B | — |
| 2025-11-07 | $950B | — |
| 2025-11-10 | $965B | — |
| 2025-11-12 | $943B | — |
| 2025-11-13 | $962B | — |
| 2025-11-14 | $959B | — |
| 2025-11-17 | $925B | — |
| 2025-11-18 | $928B | — |
| 2025-11-19 | $901B | — |
| 2025-11-20 | $910B | — |
| 2025-11-21 | $892B | — |
| 2025-11-24 | $907B | — |
| 2025-11-25 | $932B | — |
| 2025-11-26 | $900B | — |
| 2025-11-28 | $956B | — |
| 2025-12-01 | $948B | — |
| 2025-12-02 | $936B | — |
| 2025-12-03 | $909B | — |
| 2025-12-04 | $879B | — |
| 2025-12-05 | $870B | — |
| 2025-12-08 | $880B | — |
| 2025-12-09 | $837B | — |
| 2025-12-10 | $806B | — |
| 2025-12-11 | $793B | — |
| 2025-12-12 | $792B | — |
| 2025-12-15 | $913B | — |
| 2025-12-16 | $887B | — |
| 2025-12-17 | $861B | — |
| 2025-12-18 | $842B | — |
| 2025-12-19 | $840B | — |
| 2025-12-22 | $872B | — |
| 2025-12-23 | $824B | — |
| 2025-12-24 | $802B | — |
| 2025-12-26 | $834B | — |
| 2025-12-29 | $859B | — |
| 2025-12-30 | $826B | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $873B | — |
| 2026-01-02 | $781B | — |
| 2026-01-05 | $801B | — |
| 2026-01-06 | $772B | — |
| 2026-01-07 | $784B | — |
| 2026-01-08 | $774B | — |
| 2026-01-09 | $775B | — |
| 2026-01-12 | $797B | — |
| 2026-01-13 | $781B | — |
| 2026-01-14 | $777B | — |
| 2026-01-15 | $841B | — |
| 2026-01-16 | $868B | — |
| 2026-01-20 | $900B | — |
| 2026-01-21 | $871B | — |
| 2026-01-22 | $888B | — |
| 2026-01-23 | $901B | — |
| 2026-01-26 | $944B | — |
| 2026-01-27 | $975B | — |
| 2026-01-28 | $953B | — |
| 2026-01-29 | $968B | — |
| 2026-01-30 | $893B | — |
| 2026-02-02 | $898B | — |
| 2026-02-03 | $908B | — |
| 2026-02-04 | $908B | — |
| 2026-02-05 | $915B | — |
| 2026-02-06 | $905B | — |
| 2026-02-09 | $918B | — |
| 2026-02-10 | $949B | — |
| 2026-02-11 | $911B | — |
| 2026-02-12 | $921B | — |
| 2026-02-13 | $914B | — |
| 2026-02-17 | $925B | — |
| 2026-02-18 | $889B | — |
| 2026-02-19 | $905B | — |
| 2026-02-20 | $893B | — |
| 2026-02-23 | $888B | — |
| 2026-02-24 | $901B | — |
| 2026-02-25 | $839B | — |
| 2026-02-26 | $849B | — |
| 2026-02-27 | $799B | — |
| 2026-03-02 | $871B | — |
| 2026-03-03 | $860B | — |
| 2026-03-04 | $847B | — |
| 2026-03-05 | $841B | — |
| 2026-03-06 | $833B | — |
| 2026-03-09 | $859B | — |
| 2026-03-10 | $863B | — |
| 2026-03-11 | $806B | — |
| 2026-03-12 | $809B | — |
| 2026-03-13 | $806B | — |
| 2026-03-16 | $938B | — |
| 2026-03-17 | $930B | — |
| 2026-03-18 | $876B | — |
| 2026-03-19 | $883B | — |
| 2026-03-20 | $871B | — |
| 2026-03-23 | $910B | — |
| 2026-03-24 | $876B | — |
| 2026-03-25 | $837B | — |
| 2026-03-26 | $823B | — |
| 2026-03-27 | $849B | — |
| 2026-03-30 | $868B | — |
| 2026-03-31 | $893B | — |
| 2026-04-01 | $804B | — |
| 2026-04-02 | $776B | — |
| 2026-04-03 | $754B | — |
| 2026-04-06 | $775B | — |
| 2026-04-07 | $728B | — |
| 2026-04-08 | $697B | — |
| 2026-04-09 | $687B | — |
| 2026-04-10 | $703B | — |
| 2026-04-13 | $759B | — |
| 2026-04-14 | $780B | — |
| 2026-04-15 | $924B | — |
| 2026-04-16 | $971B | — |
| 2026-04-17 | $999B | — |
| 2026-04-20 | $1,038B | — |
| 2026-04-21 | $1,030B | — |
| 2026-04-22 | $1,007B | — |
| 2026-04-23 | $970B | — |
| 2026-04-24 | $974B | — |
| 2026-04-27 | $1,002B | — |
| 2026-04-28 | $990B | — |
| 2026-04-29 | $988B | — |
| 2026-04-30 | $969B | — |
| 2026-05-01 | $857B | — |
| 2026-05-04 | $880B | — |
| 2026-05-05 | $860B | — |
| 2026-05-06 | $863B | — |
| 2026-05-07 | $847B | — |
| 2026-05-08 | $839B | — |
| 2026-05-11 | $855B | — |
| 2026-05-12 | $844B | — |
| 2026-05-13 | $807B | — |
| 2026-05-14 | $802B | — |
| 2026-05-15 | $759B | — |
| 2026-05-18 | $786B | — |
| 2026-05-19 | $822B | — |
| 2026-05-20 | $782B | — |
| 2026-05-21 | $786B | — |
| 2026-05-22 | $826B | — |
| 2026-05-26 | $881B | — |
| 2026-05-27 | $843B | — |
| 2026-05-28 | $850B | — |
| 2026-05-29 | $904B | — |
| 2026-06-01 | $857B | — |
| 2026-06-02 | $866B | — |
| 2026-06-03 | $846B | — |
| 2026-06-04 | $845B | — |
| 2026-06-05 | $826B | — |
| 2026-06-08 | $844B | — |
| 2026-06-09 | $830B | — |
| 2026-06-10 | $801B | — |
| 2026-06-11 | $800B | — |
| 2026-06-12 | $816B | — |
| 2026-06-15 | $980B | — |
| 2026-06-16 | $981B | — |
| 2026-06-17 | $957B | — |
| 2026-06-18 | $915B | — |
| 2026-06-22 | $943B | — |
| 2026-06-23 | $926B | — |
| 2026-06-24 | $902B | — |
| 2026-06-25 | $871B | — |
| 2026-06-26 | $896B | — |
| 2026-06-29 | $877B | — |
| 2026-06-30 | $919B | — |
| 2026-07-01 | $807B | — |
| 2026-07-02 | $771B | — |
| 2026-07-03 | $777B | — |
| 2026-07-06 | $783B | — |
| 2026-07-07 | $785B | — |
| 2026-07-08 | $749B | — |
| 2026-07-09 | $745B | — |
| 2026-07-10 | $738B | — |
| 2026-07-13 | $750B | — |
| 2026-07-14 | $788B | — |
| 2026-07-15 | $796B | — |
| 2026-07-16 | $823B | — |
| 2026-07-17 | $815B | — |
| 2026-07-20 | $828B | — |
| 2026-07-21 | $875B | — |
| 2026-07-22 | $835B | — |
| 2026-07-23 | $877B | — |
| 2026-07-24 | $886B | — |
| 2026-07-27 | $903B | — |
| 2026-07-28 | $966B | — |
| 2026-07-29 | $970B | — |
| 2026-07-30 | $998B | — |
| 2026-07-31 | $877B | — |
| 2026-08-03 | $870B | — |
| 2026-08-04 | $924B | — |
| 2026-08-05 | $929B | — |
| 2026-08-06 | $962B | — |
| 2026-08-07 | $954B | — |
| 2026-08-10 | $967B | — |
| 2026-08-11 | $997B | — |
| 2026-08-12 | $959B | — |
| 2026-08-13 | $967B | — |
| 2026-08-14 | $959B | — |
| 2026-08-17 | $933B | — |
| 2026-08-18 | $962B | — |
| 2026-08-19 | $936B | — |
| 2026-08-20 | $935B | — |
| 2026-08-21 | $933B | — |
| 2026-08-24 | $967B | — |
| 2026-08-25 | $994B | — |
| 2026-08-26 | $959B | — |
| 2026-08-27 | $951B | — |
| 2026-08-28 | $971B | — |
| 2026-08-31 | $1,024B | — |
| 2026-09-01 | $943B | — |
| 2026-09-02 | $944B | — |
| 2026-09-03 | $904B | — |
| 2026-09-04 | $889B | — |
| 2026-09-08 | $880B | — |
| 2026-09-09 | $844B | — |
| 2026-09-10 | $818B | — |
| 2026-09-11 | $822B | — |
| 2026-09-14 | $871B | — |
| 2026-09-15 | $992B | — |
| 2026-09-16 | $992B | — |
| 2026-09-17 | $973B | $973B |
| 2026-09-18 | — | $989B |
| 2026-09-21 | — | $1,044B |
| 2026-09-22 | — | $1,120B |
| 2026-09-23 | — | $1,100B |
| 2026-09-24 | — | $1,074B |
| 2026-09-25 | — | $1,106B |
| 2026-09-28 | — | $1,148B |
| 2026-09-29 | — | $1,109B |
| 2026-09-30 | — | $1,122B |
| 2026-10-01 | — | $1,004B |
| 2026-10-02 | — | $984B |
| 2026-10-05 | — | $1,006B |
| 2026-10-06 | — | $1,055B |
| 2026-10-07 | — | $1,058B |
| 2026-10-08 | — | $1,060B |
| 2026-10-09 | — | $1,058B |
| 2026-10-13 | — | $1,108B |
| 2026-10-14 | — | $1,076B |
| 2026-10-15 | — | $1,031B |
| 2026-10-16 | — | $1,034B |
| 2026-10-19 | — | $1,056B |
| 2026-10-20 | — | $1,105B |
| 2026-10-21 | — | $1,077B |
| 2026-10-22 | — | $1,136B |
| 2026-10-23 | — | $1,136B |
| 2026-10-26 | — | $1,156B |
| 2026-10-27 | — | $1,206B |
| 2026-10-28 | — | $1,173B |
| 2026-10-29 | — | $1,214B |
| 2026-10-30 | — | $1,130B |
| 2026-11-02 | — | $860B |
| 2026-11-03 | — | $883B |
| 2026-11-04 | — | $886B |
| 2026-11-05 | — | $930B |
| 2026-11-06 | — | $929B |
| 2026-11-09 | — | $949B |
| 2026-11-10 | — | $957B |
| 2026-11-12 | — | $1,003B |
| 2026-11-13 | — | $1,004B |
| 2026-11-16 | — | $827B |
| 2026-11-17 | — | $877B |
| 2026-11-18 | — | $849B |
| 2026-11-19 | — | $893B |
| 2026-11-20 | — | $884B |
| 2026-11-23 | — | $917B |
| 2026-11-24 | — | $977B |
| 2026-11-25 | — | $944B |
| 2026-11-27 | — | $994B |
| 2026-11-30 | — | $816B |
| 2026-12-01 | — | $772B |
| 2026-12-02 | — | $780B |
| 2026-12-03 | — | $801B |
| 2026-12-04 | — | $803B |
| 2026-12-07 | — | $830B |
| 2026-12-08 | — | $882B |
| 2026-12-09 | — | $851B |
| 2026-12-10 | — | $897B |
| 2026-12-11 | — | $904B |
| 2026-12-14 | — | $936B |
| 2026-12-15 | — | $942B |
SOFR
Secured Overnight Financing Rate — where overnight repo funding actually clears. Month-end and tax-date upticks are the tell that cash is getting scarce.
View as table
| Date | SOFR |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 3.66% |
| 2026-04-28 | 3.64% |
| 2026-04-29 | 3.63% |
| 2026-04-30 | 3.66% |
| 2026-05-01 | 3.64% |
| 2026-05-04 | 3.63% |
| 2026-05-05 | 3.62% |
| 2026-05-06 | 3.61% |
| 2026-05-07 | 3.60% |
| 2026-05-08 | 3.60% |
| 2026-05-11 | 3.60% |
| 2026-05-12 | 3.60% |
| 2026-05-13 | 3.59% |
| 2026-05-14 | 3.56% |
| 2026-05-15 | 3.55% |
| 2026-05-18 | 3.53% |
| 2026-05-19 | 3.51% |
| 2026-05-20 | 3.50% |
| 2026-05-21 | 3.51% |
| 2026-05-22 | 3.55% |
| 2026-05-26 | 3.63% |
| 2026-05-27 | 3.63% |
| 2026-05-28 | 3.62% |
| 2026-05-29 | 3.63% |
| 2026-06-01 | 3.65% |
| 2026-06-02 | 3.63% |
| 2026-06-03 | 3.61% |
| 2026-06-04 | 3.62% |
| 2026-06-05 | 3.63% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.63% |
| 2026-06-09 | 3.60% |
| 2026-06-10 | 3.59% |
| 2026-06-11 | 3.60% |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.65% |
| 2026-06-15 | 3.69% |
| 2026-06-16 | 3.63% |
| 2026-06-17 | 3.63% |
| 2026-06-18 | 3.62% |
| 2026-06-22 | 3.61% |
| 2026-06-23 | 3.62% |
| 2026-06-24 | 3.62% |
| 2026-06-25 | 3.64% |
| 2026-06-26 | 3.62% |
| 2026-06-29 | 3.62% |
| 2026-06-30 | 3.68% |
| 2026-07-01 | 3.66% |
| 2026-07-02 | 3.64% |
| 2026-07-06 | 3.63% |
| 2026-07-07 | 3.62% |
| 2026-07-08 | 3.58% |
| 2026-07-09 | 3.53% |
| 2026-07-10 | 3.55% |
| 2026-07-13 | 3.60% |
| 2026-07-14 | 3.63% |
| 2026-07-15 | 3.64% |
| 2026-07-16 | 3.62% |
| 2026-07-17 | 3.59% |
| 2026-07-20 | 3.57% |
| 2026-07-21 | 3.61% |
| 2026-07-22 | 3.62% |
| 2026-07-23 | 3.64% |
| 2026-07-24 | 3.64% |
| 2026-07-27 | 3.64% |
| 2026-07-28 | 3.65% |
| 2026-07-29 | 3.65% |
| 2026-07-30 | 3.65% |
| 2026-07-31 | 3.66% |
| 2026-08-03 | 3.65% |
| 2026-08-04 | 3.66% |
| 2026-08-05 | 3.64% |
| 2026-08-06 | 3.65% |
| 2026-08-07 | 3.62% |
| 2026-08-10 | 3.63% |
| 2026-08-11 | 3.64% |
| 2026-08-12 | 3.62% |
| 2026-08-13 | 3.62% |
| 2026-08-14 | 3.62% |
| 2026-08-17 | 3.66% |
| 2026-08-18 | 3.65% |
| 2026-08-19 | 3.62% |
| 2026-08-20 | 3.63% |
| 2026-08-21 | 3.65% |
| 2026-08-24 | 3.65% |
| 2026-08-25 | 3.66% |
| 2026-08-26 | 3.64% |
| 2026-08-27 | 3.64% |
| 2026-08-28 | 3.65% |
| 2026-08-31 | 3.68% |
| 2026-09-01 | 3.66% |
| 2026-09-02 | 3.65% |
| 2026-09-03 | 3.66% |
| 2026-09-04 | 3.65% |
| 2026-09-08 | 3.64% |
| 2026-09-09 | 3.64% |
| 2026-09-10 | 3.62% |
| 2026-09-11 | 3.62% |
| 2026-09-14 | 3.62% |
| 2026-09-15 | 3.64% |
| 2026-09-16 | 3.62% |
| 2026-09-17 | 3.85% |
Method
Treasury cash flows are dominated by the fiscal calendar — tax receipts cluster mid-month, benefit payments land at the start, settlements at the end. This projection comes from a six-layer model that forecasts each daily flow explicitly: non-debt receipts and outlays built from a calendar of recurring payment events (Social Security, Medicare capitation, military and federal payrolls, tax refunds), the bill-maturity schedule, a rolling five-day cash floor, and an issuance/glide-path engine that sizes Treasury auctions toward the quarter-end TGA target. It re-anchors to the latest actual balance each day and runs offline from cached Treasury data, refreshed daily. The displayed path covers 60business days and its uncertainty remains unvalidated. When the TGA builds, Treasury is pulling reserves out of the banking system; when it runs down, it's adding them — and SOFR is where that pressure shows up first.
Sources: the Daily Treasury Statement via the FiscalData API, and SOFR from the New York Fed. Refreshed hourly. This is a nowcasting experiment, not investment advice.