DTS Forecast
Projecting Treasury General Account liquidity from Daily Treasury Statement cash flows, with SOFR as the funding-pressure read.
Live data · as of 2026-07-21 · refreshes hourly
TGA balance$875B+$87B vs one week ago
TGA in 4 weeks (projected)$907B+$32B vs today
SOFR3.61%+0bp vs 20-day average
Liquidity read
Draining — TGA projected to build, pulling reserves out of the system
Treasury General Account
Closing balance from the Daily Treasury Statement, with a simple v1 four-week projection from day-of-month flow medians (see Method).
ActualProjected (v1)
View as table
| Date | Actual | Projected (v1) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-27 | $596B | — |
| 2025-08-28 | $610B | — |
| 2025-08-29 | $555B | — |
| 2025-09-02 | $690B | — |
| 2025-09-03 | $662B | — |
| 2025-09-04 | $669B | — |
| 2025-09-05 | $666B | — |
| 2025-09-08 | $680B | — |
| 2025-09-09 | $690B | — |
| 2025-09-10 | $668B | — |
| 2025-09-11 | $683B | — |
| 2025-09-12 | $708B | — |
| 2025-09-15 | $858B | — |
| 2025-09-16 | $824B | — |
| 2025-09-17 | $807B | — |
| 2025-09-18 | $816B | — |
| 2025-09-19 | $819B | — |
| 2025-09-22 | $822B | — |
| 2025-09-23 | $782B | — |
| 2025-09-24 | $758B | — |
| 2025-09-25 | $761B | — |
| 2025-09-26 | $786B | — |
| 2025-09-29 | $806B | — |
| 2025-09-30 | $891B | — |
| 2025-10-01 | $819B | — |
| 2025-10-02 | $824B | — |
| 2025-10-03 | $798B | — |
| 2025-10-06 | $815B | — |
| 2025-10-07 | $824B | — |
| 2025-10-08 | $794B | — |
| 2025-10-09 | $796B | — |
| 2025-10-10 | $794B | — |
| 2025-10-14 | $841B | — |
| 2025-10-15 | $852B | — |
| 2025-10-16 | $900B | — |
| 2025-10-17 | $905B | — |
| 2025-10-20 | $906B | — |
| 2025-10-21 | $929B | — |
| 2025-10-22 | $905B | — |
| 2025-10-23 | $945B | — |
| 2025-10-24 | $942B | — |
| 2025-10-27 | $965B | — |
| 2025-10-28 | $985B | — |
| 2025-10-29 | $984B | — |
| 2025-10-30 | $1,001B | — |
| 2025-10-31 | $926B | — |
| 2025-11-03 | $925B | — |
| 2025-11-04 | $940B | — |
| 2025-11-05 | $943B | — |
| 2025-11-06 | $954B | — |
| 2025-11-07 | $950B | — |
| 2025-11-10 | $965B | — |
| 2025-11-12 | $943B | — |
| 2025-11-13 | $962B | — |
| 2025-11-14 | $959B | — |
| 2025-11-17 | $925B | — |
| 2025-11-18 | $928B | — |
| 2025-11-19 | $901B | — |
| 2025-11-20 | $910B | — |
| 2025-11-21 | $892B | — |
| 2025-11-24 | $907B | — |
| 2025-11-25 | $932B | — |
| 2025-11-26 | $900B | — |
| 2025-11-28 | $956B | — |
| 2025-12-01 | $948B | — |
| 2025-12-02 | $936B | — |
| 2025-12-03 | $909B | — |
| 2025-12-04 | $879B | — |
| 2025-12-05 | $870B | — |
| 2025-12-08 | $880B | — |
| 2025-12-09 | $837B | — |
| 2025-12-10 | $806B | — |
| 2025-12-11 | $793B | — |
| 2025-12-12 | $792B | — |
| 2025-12-15 | $913B | — |
| 2025-12-16 | $887B | — |
| 2025-12-17 | $861B | — |
| 2025-12-18 | $842B | — |
| 2025-12-19 | $840B | — |
| 2025-12-22 | $872B | — |
| 2025-12-23 | $824B | — |
| 2025-12-24 | $802B | — |
| 2025-12-26 | $834B | — |
| 2025-12-29 | $859B | — |
| 2025-12-30 | $826B | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $873B | — |
| 2026-01-02 | $781B | — |
| 2026-01-05 | $801B | — |
| 2026-01-06 | $772B | — |
| 2026-01-07 | $784B | — |
| 2026-01-08 | $774B | — |
| 2026-01-09 | $775B | — |
| 2026-01-12 | $797B | — |
| 2026-01-13 | $781B | — |
| 2026-01-14 | $777B | — |
| 2026-01-15 | $841B | — |
| 2026-01-16 | $868B | — |
| 2026-01-20 | $900B | — |
| 2026-01-21 | $871B | — |
| 2026-01-22 | $888B | — |
| 2026-01-23 | $901B | — |
| 2026-01-26 | $944B | — |
| 2026-01-27 | $975B | — |
| 2026-01-28 | $953B | — |
| 2026-01-29 | $968B | — |
| 2026-01-30 | $893B | — |
| 2026-02-02 | $898B | — |
| 2026-02-03 | $908B | — |
| 2026-02-04 | $908B | — |
| 2026-02-05 | $915B | — |
| 2026-02-06 | $905B | — |
| 2026-02-09 | $918B | — |
| 2026-02-10 | $949B | — |
| 2026-02-11 | $911B | — |
| 2026-02-12 | $921B | — |
| 2026-02-13 | $914B | — |
| 2026-02-17 | $925B | — |
| 2026-02-18 | $889B | — |
| 2026-02-19 | $905B | — |
| 2026-02-20 | $893B | — |
| 2026-02-23 | $888B | — |
| 2026-02-24 | $901B | — |
| 2026-02-25 | $839B | — |
| 2026-02-26 | $849B | — |
| 2026-02-27 | $799B | — |
| 2026-03-02 | $871B | — |
| 2026-03-03 | $860B | — |
| 2026-03-04 | $847B | — |
| 2026-03-05 | $841B | — |
| 2026-03-06 | $833B | — |
| 2026-03-09 | $859B | — |
| 2026-03-10 | $863B | — |
| 2026-03-11 | $806B | — |
| 2026-03-12 | $809B | — |
| 2026-03-13 | $806B | — |
| 2026-03-16 | $938B | — |
| 2026-03-17 | $930B | — |
| 2026-03-18 | $876B | — |
| 2026-03-19 | $883B | — |
| 2026-03-20 | $871B | — |
| 2026-03-23 | $910B | — |
| 2026-03-24 | $876B | — |
| 2026-03-25 | $837B | — |
| 2026-03-26 | $823B | — |
| 2026-03-27 | $849B | — |
| 2026-03-30 | $868B | — |
| 2026-03-31 | $893B | — |
| 2026-04-01 | $804B | — |
| 2026-04-02 | $776B | — |
| 2026-04-03 | $754B | — |
| 2026-04-06 | $775B | — |
| 2026-04-07 | $728B | — |
| 2026-04-08 | $697B | — |
| 2026-04-09 | $687B | — |
| 2026-04-10 | $703B | — |
| 2026-04-13 | $759B | — |
| 2026-04-14 | $780B | — |
| 2026-04-15 | $924B | — |
| 2026-04-16 | $971B | — |
| 2026-04-17 | $999B | — |
| 2026-04-20 | $1,038B | — |
| 2026-04-21 | $1,030B | — |
| 2026-04-22 | $1,007B | — |
| 2026-04-23 | $970B | — |
| 2026-04-24 | $974B | — |
| 2026-04-27 | $1,002B | — |
| 2026-04-28 | $990B | — |
| 2026-04-29 | $988B | — |
| 2026-04-30 | $969B | — |
| 2026-05-01 | $857B | — |
| 2026-05-04 | $880B | — |
| 2026-05-05 | $860B | — |
| 2026-05-06 | $863B | — |
| 2026-05-07 | $847B | — |
| 2026-05-08 | $839B | — |
| 2026-05-11 | $855B | — |
| 2026-05-12 | $844B | — |
| 2026-05-13 | $807B | — |
| 2026-05-14 | $802B | — |
| 2026-05-15 | $759B | — |
| 2026-05-18 | $786B | — |
| 2026-05-19 | $822B | — |
| 2026-05-20 | $782B | — |
| 2026-05-21 | $786B | — |
| 2026-05-22 | $826B | — |
| 2026-05-26 | $881B | — |
| 2026-05-27 | $843B | — |
| 2026-05-28 | $850B | — |
| 2026-05-29 | $904B | — |
| 2026-06-01 | $857B | — |
| 2026-06-02 | $866B | — |
| 2026-06-03 | $846B | — |
| 2026-06-04 | $845B | — |
| 2026-06-05 | $826B | — |
| 2026-06-08 | $844B | — |
| 2026-06-09 | $830B | — |
| 2026-06-10 | $801B | — |
| 2026-06-11 | $800B | — |
| 2026-06-12 | $816B | — |
| 2026-06-15 | $980B | — |
| 2026-06-16 | $981B | — |
| 2026-06-17 | $957B | — |
| 2026-06-18 | $915B | — |
| 2026-06-22 | $943B | — |
| 2026-06-23 | $926B | — |
| 2026-06-24 | $902B | — |
| 2026-06-25 | $871B | — |
| 2026-06-26 | $896B | — |
| 2026-06-29 | $877B | — |
| 2026-06-30 | $919B | — |
| 2026-07-01 | $807B | — |
| 2026-07-02 | $771B | — |
| 2026-07-03 | $777B | — |
| 2026-07-06 | $783B | — |
| 2026-07-07 | $785B | — |
| 2026-07-08 | $749B | — |
| 2026-07-09 | $745B | — |
| 2026-07-10 | $738B | — |
| 2026-07-13 | $750B | — |
| 2026-07-14 | $788B | — |
| 2026-07-15 | $796B | — |
| 2026-07-16 | $823B | — |
| 2026-07-17 | $815B | — |
| 2026-07-20 | $828B | — |
| 2026-07-21 | $875B | $875B |
| 2026-07-22 | — | $892B |
| 2026-07-23 | — | $881B |
| 2026-07-24 | — | $869B |
| 2026-07-27 | — | $892B |
| 2026-07-28 | — | $903B |
| 2026-07-29 | — | $910B |
| 2026-07-30 | — | $927B |
| 2026-07-31 | — | $951B |
| 2026-08-03 | — | $931B |
| 2026-08-04 | — | $931B |
| 2026-08-05 | — | $926B |
| 2026-08-06 | — | $931B |
| 2026-08-07 | — | $930B |
| 2026-08-10 | — | $928B |
| 2026-08-11 | — | $921B |
| 2026-08-12 | — | $928B |
| 2026-08-13 | — | $925B |
| 2026-08-14 | — | $934B |
| 2026-08-17 | — | $926B |
| 2026-08-18 | — | $907B |
SOFR
Secured Overnight Financing Rate — where overnight repo funding actually clears. Month-end and tax-date upticks are the tell that cash is getting scarce.
View as table
| Date | SOFR |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | 3.67% |
| 2026-02-27 | 3.68% |
| 2026-03-02 | 3.71% |
| 2026-03-03 | 3.70% |
| 2026-03-04 | 3.67% |
| 2026-03-05 | 3.66% |
| 2026-03-06 | 3.65% |
| 2026-03-09 | 3.65% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.64% |
| 2026-03-11 | 3.64% |
| 2026-03-12 | 3.65% |
| 2026-03-13 | 3.65% |
| 2026-03-16 | 3.70% |
| 2026-03-17 | 3.65% |
| 2026-03-18 | 3.62% |
| 2026-03-19 | 3.62% |
| 2026-03-20 | 3.62% |
| 2026-03-23 | 3.62% |
| 2026-03-24 | 3.63% |
| 2026-03-25 | 3.64% |
| 2026-03-26 | 3.65% |
| 2026-03-27 | 3.63% |
| 2026-03-30 | 3.63% |
| 2026-03-31 | 3.68% |
| 2026-04-01 | 3.65% |
| 2026-04-02 | 3.66% |
| 2026-04-06 | 3.65% |
| 2026-04-07 | 3.62% |
| 2026-04-08 | 3.59% |
| 2026-04-09 | 3.57% |
| 2026-04-10 | 3.61% |
| 2026-04-13 | 3.63% |
| 2026-04-14 | 3.66% |
| 2026-04-15 | 3.72% |
| 2026-04-16 | 3.67% |
| 2026-04-17 | 3.65% |
| 2026-04-20 | 3.63% |
| 2026-04-21 | 3.63% |
| 2026-04-22 | 3.64% |
| 2026-04-23 | 3.65% |
| 2026-04-24 | 3.66% |
| 2026-04-27 | 3.66% |
| 2026-04-28 | 3.64% |
| 2026-04-29 | 3.63% |
| 2026-04-30 | 3.66% |
| 2026-05-01 | 3.64% |
| 2026-05-04 | 3.63% |
| 2026-05-05 | 3.62% |
| 2026-05-06 | 3.61% |
| 2026-05-07 | 3.60% |
| 2026-05-08 | 3.60% |
| 2026-05-11 | 3.60% |
| 2026-05-12 | 3.60% |
| 2026-05-13 | 3.59% |
| 2026-05-14 | 3.56% |
| 2026-05-15 | 3.55% |
| 2026-05-18 | 3.53% |
| 2026-05-19 | 3.51% |
| 2026-05-20 | 3.50% |
| 2026-05-21 | 3.51% |
| 2026-05-22 | 3.55% |
| 2026-05-26 | 3.63% |
| 2026-05-27 | 3.63% |
| 2026-05-28 | 3.62% |
| 2026-05-29 | 3.63% |
| 2026-06-01 | 3.65% |
| 2026-06-02 | 3.63% |
| 2026-06-03 | 3.61% |
| 2026-06-04 | 3.62% |
| 2026-06-05 | 3.63% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.63% |
| 2026-06-09 | 3.60% |
| 2026-06-10 | 3.59% |
| 2026-06-11 | 3.60% |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.65% |
| 2026-06-15 | 3.69% |
| 2026-06-16 | 3.63% |
| 2026-06-17 | 3.63% |
| 2026-06-18 | 3.62% |
| 2026-06-22 | 3.61% |
| 2026-06-23 | 3.62% |
| 2026-06-24 | 3.62% |
| 2026-06-25 | 3.64% |
| 2026-06-26 | 3.62% |
| 2026-06-29 | 3.62% |
| 2026-06-30 | 3.68% |
| 2026-07-01 | 3.66% |
| 2026-07-02 | 3.64% |
| 2026-07-06 | 3.63% |
| 2026-07-07 | 3.62% |
| 2026-07-08 | 3.58% |
| 2026-07-09 | 3.53% |
| 2026-07-10 | 3.55% |
| 2026-07-13 | 3.60% |
| 2026-07-14 | 3.63% |
| 2026-07-15 | 3.64% |
| 2026-07-16 | 3.62% |
| 2026-07-17 | 3.59% |
| 2026-07-20 | 3.57% |
| 2026-07-21 | 3.61% |
Method
Treasury cash flows are dominated by the fiscal calendar — tax receipts cluster mid-month, benefit payments land at the start, settlements at the end. The v1 projection leans on exactly that: each upcoming business day's net flow is the median historical net flow for that day of the month, applied to the latest closing balance. When the TGA builds, Treasury is pulling reserves out of the banking system; when it runs down, it's adding them — and SOFR is where that pressure shows up first.
Sources: the Daily Treasury Statement via the FiscalData API, and SOFR from the New York Fed. Refreshed hourly. This is a nowcasting experiment, not investment advice.